The US retail apocalypse

 

My wife and I went to a department store closing within the last week, reminding me of a subject I've been concerned about for awhile.  The earlier mall form of retail shopping is dying in America.  It's just supply and demand playing out, right, just as small mom and pop stores gave way to supermarkets, and Walmart disrupted those (and malls), along with other big box stores shuttering local hardware and electronics stores and the like?  Sure, but for many nostalgia plays a role in seeing it differently, seeing a part of their earlier life experience come to an end.  

a dying mall in Bangkok, MBK, but the return of tourism may save it

That was the third department store in a local (Bangok) mall that closed, that I know of, so the process runs well behind entire malls going empty and later being demolished in the US.  But it seems to be coming.  Online shopping runs behind Amazon and Ebay development here, but for sure every year Shoppee and Lazada do more business here, and packages arriving in homes replaces trips out to physical stores.

I'll refer to a lot of what is routinely covered in a favorite Youtube channel about this trend, Ace's Adventures.  I just won't scan through hundreds of hours of videos to find individual statements to support the generalized overview here.  Per my understanding that video content producer, Anthony, didn't start that channel form, and he did credit one main person who did.  In scanning a Wikipedia "dead mall" topic page it seems that maybe it was Dan Bell who developed that, in this series.

To be clear what I'm going to summarize here is really my own take on ideas I've been exposed to, and may not faithfully represent the facts of the matter, or interpretation by any "dead mall" enthusiasts.  I've seen videos by others, but this is only one of many themes I've checked out and let go, so I'm far from an expert on it, or even a well-informed follower of this topic.  I've watched a couple of dozen related videos; that's it.

in my hometown, Cranberry, PA

Why are malls dying?

No single set of reasons, but speculation tends to settle on a few.  Online shopping has been having an impact.  In some cases too many malls were built, some quite close to others, and older versions tend to lose popularity in that situation, and later become vacant.  Wal-Mart had an impact, but Wal-Mart has been impacted by online shopping, bulk shopping options (Costco, with Sam's Club their own version), and other "big box" retailer popularity too.  In some cases disruptive behavior of some mall regulars, crime or harassment, made some malls feel less inviting.  Smaller "lifestyle centers," updated versions of earlier strip mall themes, replaced some demand, by updating restaurant version options and including more up to date activity related businesses, eg. yoga or tae kwan do studios.

fantastic aesthetics!  photo credit to Ace's Adventures Facebook page.

Is dated style a main concern, or poorly maintained mall conditions?

Maybe not as much as one might expect.  Some interiors definitely do have a distinctive 80s or 90s look and feel, which could relate, but many of the videos cover malls that were renovated to return to pristine and somewhat updated appearance conditions (which can only be changed so much), and the business still never returned.  The local mall in my home area, in Cranberry, PA (with a video showing that here), did reportedly have problems with roofs leaking, which certainly wouldn't help, and could be one more reason for major tenants to move out, but it seems like it was economics driving the process, reduced demand.  Covid pushed many malls over the edge, for obvious reasons, but for most the process was already quite progressed by 2019.

malls were literally closed here during 2020, except for grocery stores

Why do people create these videos, what is the interest about?

The appeal that gets cited is an interest in preserving a video record of what these 70s, 80s, and 90s malls were like, before many are demolished.  Some are actually closed during the filming, but more often they're just essentially vacant, with only a few minor stores left.   Nostalgia seems to drive that, personal interest in that earlier cultural form.  Many really do have a novel look, and those that peg earlier standard design themes have a different kind of appeal, for capturing a moment in time, in terms of public shopping space design.  

What I like most about Anthony's (Ace's Adventures) tone and style relates to a true appreciation for these places, not a morbid curiosity about decline itself, but an appreciation for the style and earlier experiences that are no longer available in the same form.

Is there a typical progression in malls dying?

Sure.  Main anchor tenants go first, places like Sears and JC Penney, which first closed as individual locations, and later closed many of their stores nationwide.  These tend to be replaced by other major tenants, with something like a sporting goods store often moving into that larger space.  But there is a process in place that's hard to disrupt at that point, with decreasing foot traffic leading to other store closures, which leads to less mall visitation, and so on.  Gaps in mall maintenance can come up, but again that often doesn't seem to be a critical step in the progression.  Higher cost, volume intensive facilities like ice skating rinks tend to close earlier on, as it becomes impossible to offset high operating costs.  Businesses like a cinema might close later on, or parts of a food court might remain open, with limited customer volume funneling down to a smaller set of food outlets as some close.

This last point ties back to dated style being a concern, and newer small lifestyle centers replacing mall based options.  Older food outlets, like Auntie Anne's pretzels, or Orange Julius booths, can still be appealing related to the nostalgia factor of people remembering enjoying that, but over time food preferences tend to shift.  Since we tend to run a little behind in what exists and is in demand where I've been living in Thailand--a subject I'll get back to--Auntie Anne's pretzels are doing just fine here, as Dairy Queen booths are, and Mr. Donut stores.  Time catches up with that last chain though; it's now being replaced by Krispy Kreme and Tim Horton's stores.

In the end it's a struggle to keep to keep any businesses open.  For whatever reason American Eagle Outfitter type clothing stores and Bath and Body works stores seem to hang in there longest.  Then malls tend to try to convert to using space for offices and such, most often unsuccessfully.

Is this happening elsewhere, for example in Hawaii or Thailand?

Yes and no.  The main malls in Oahu seem to be doing ok, for now, but with many having a dated look and some locals switching over to online shopping it may only be a matter of time.  A Sears just closed there in one main mall, which is how that starts.  The main mall in the Waikiki (tourist resort) area is the Ala Moana Center, the largest open air mall in the world (I think it was), and that seems quite healthy (as of a number of visits in October), even with the somewhat reduced tourism level from covid impact tapering off over time.

Ala Moana; a little dated in design, but it's nice

Christmas in October in a Thai mall, that is doing ok

a large Japanese store went out of Central World, a thriving Bangkok mall

There was a progression of overbuilding local malls in some areas in the mainland of the US that is probably also happening in Thailand, with the main build-out of malls in the Bangkok area only relatively complete in the last 5 years or so.  In other smaller cities new malls are being developed in close proximity to older versions, which could lead to the same cycle occurring there.  Older types of shopping centers close from time to time in Bangkok, but in general those places tend to experience long, slow deaths instead, drawing on limited local shopping support to hang in there.

one predecessor to malls in Thailand, roofed shops areas

the Nightingale Department store, the first in Bangkok, which may or may not still be there

Can standard format malls still thrive in the US?

Of course.  These tend to be newer facilities, with a less dated look and feel, but really local shopping support depends on a number of factors, including what other options are around.  It's not as if everyone in the US decided that walking around a mall is a bad idea at the same time; again instead a number of factors seemed to lead towards that end point.

the Pearl Ridge mall near Pearl Harbor; a bit dated, but it's doing ok

Are there ways for struggling or healthy malls to avoid this pattern?

This part is less clear, something I've been considering quite a bit myself.  If "lifestyle centers" can help cause mall decline it should be possible for malls to utilize the same type of specialty store option availability to preserve their own traffic, even if visitors really don't want to experience the process of parking in a large lot and walking a moderate distance to visit a store.  I would guess that updating restaurant options and adding newer form shops and services might help, places like yoga studios, or moving off the theme of including dated food shop chains onto unique restaurant options instead.

All that is easier said than done.  The overhead malls had to contend with isn't reduced just because visitor demand drops; maintenance costs would actually rise over time.  If a mall valued at $200 million is sold for $50 presumably shop rents could be cut as well, but if a mall is working with less and less visitor traffic cutting store rents is only going to go so far to offset the decline, and there would be a natural trend to try to retain revenue by charging full prior rent rates to all existing businesses, even though many would already be in the process of failing. 

It seems conceivable that a mall could get ahead of this curve and move to switching over to some office use space before the stores are mostly gone, preserving the life of some by adding that related foot traffic.  There is no mention of any such successes in any of the dead mall videos I've seen.

Kahala Mall at the edge of Honolulu; dated in style but still appreciated

a spectacular vertical theme mall in Hong Kong, bustling in 2019

a St. Petersburg (Russia) mall, decorated for Christmas

Talking with Alex and Bruce about Russian tea, other themes

 

We had the first online meetup of the year recently, meeting with Alex Phanganovich, who I've mentioned before here, and Bruce Carroll, an American friend living in Chiang Mai.  Alex and I first met at a Monsoon hosted talk about tea and sustainability presented by a Russian ecological researcher, Alexey Reshchikov.

Alex is looking at Kenneth Rimdahl in the back, there at Monsoon

he met the kids that day, visiting while I was at swim class with them

I wanted to write this partly to cover discussing Alex selling a bit of tea he's ran across along the way from living in Chiang Rai, and also to mention Huyen's brother mentioning a new online sales outlet.  Huyen's whole family has an amazing vibe, and they are all tea experts, so it has been nice when they can join the meetups.

it's nice seeing Huyen's nephew join; soon he'll be talking about tea too

We were supposed to talk about tea tourism in Chiang Rai; that was the initial point.  We just didn't get to it.  I think there are only a half dozen main producers that Google search would mention there (like this does), and more unconventional and interesting smaller producers would be something else, maybe further out of the Mae Salong area.  Alex mentioned that learning about local tea culture was interesting while staying there, which we didn't get to far into.

We didn't talk about tea all that much, as those meetups usually go, delving pretty far into introductions, and how covid went for people, even into how tobacco storage and consumption parallels tea themes, which led to talking about weed.  Legalized marijuana is being developed in Thailand, and another friend here uses it for a rare problem with facial muscle pain treatment.  All that is what it is, already familiar or not.  

The point about tobacco comes up in discussing humidors quite a bit.  The main difference between tobacco storage and tea is that aromatic woods used for tobacco storage can add positive flavors, and for tea you don't want anything but the other tea contributing to the changes.  Then apparently for tobacco you use different pipes for different kinds of tobacco, as with clay teapots.  Who knew?

It has been snowing in Sochi, where Alex is living now, and a main place where tea is grown in Russia.  And also in Krasnodar, I guess?  In the US tea plants used in Sochi are known for being among the most cold tolerant types that exist, which applies fairly directly for a lot of the US too.  We talked a little about Russian tea preferences, and produced styles, about changes in gaba development and shu and such, but no developed sub-themes that really need to be filled in here came up.

hopefully they're cold tolerant

A question came up about Russian blends really being smoked or not, which didn't get far in discussion.  It's my impression that this is either something made up, or a reference to Russians importing and then mixing smoked Lapsang Souchong with other teas, or to tea transported from China by horseback picking up a smoke flavor from campfires as it was transported.  My guess is the first, that it was made up.  I'd expect most of the tea that made a trip by horse, earlier, was pu'er or hei cha instead, which would make it easier to transport, and matches the theme of Yunnan producing tea for Western and Northern Chinese areas that are too cold to make their own.  Not that I'm well informed about any of that; I asked someone by message before posting this but it didn't work to get more input.

Huyen covered a bit about range of Vietnamese teas, but I've been through a lot about that here in the past.  There are two really good articles on all that by Geoff Hopkins, the owner of Hatvala, on history and evolution of tea there and on origin areas, geography, and types.  Some interesting backstory on the article source:  per my understanding when the old World of Tea blog (by Tony Gebely) transferred content to become the Tea Epicure blog some of the material went to a partner's site instead, which is what that killgreen.io site is.  So unless I'm completely wrong that had been a World of Tea guest article, which is cool.

So I'll mention a little more on those two tea sales updates and let this go.

Huyen's family has long since founded a cafe in HCMC (Saigon) and a chain of gift shops with different outlets, Tra Viet.  I might have reviewed at least one tea from them but I never kept track of origins of what Huyen shared.  Her brother is now expanding to selling tea through Amazon.  It's nothing too novel, but if better tea really is starting to creep into outlets like that it would be good.  I don't think they'll kill off small tea vendors or foreign outlets any time soon, although minding that concern makes sense.

Alex specifically mentioned that he's not necessarily trying to become a mainstream vendor (he can be reached through Facebook though, or Instagram), and that he mostly sells a bit of what he picked up in a year or so of living in the north of Thailand.  Or in general gaba tea, gushu versions, or aged shu, per asking him for this write-up, and maybe later on more Russian teas.  Maybe that's especially relevant to someone living in the Sochi area, since meeting up with someone and trying some teas helps a lot for getting a sense about such things.

This has barely touched on tea issues in Russia so far, right?  That's partly because the general background about what teas Russians like and perspective on the subject repeats what is in other posts (like this one on Russian tea culture).  An interesting sub-theme came up about perspectives on Moychay, a Russian outlet I mention a lot here, for reviewing a lot of their teas.  Some Russian tea enthusiasts love Moychay and some don't--normal enough.  They share teas for review in this blog, to be clear, so my potential bias should be noted, which isn't going to come up here since I'll set aside going further with that discussion for another post.  Alex offered some thoughts on what objections might be, or how different biases could factor in, and how it relates to perspectives on other vendors, and that really got me thinking.

Short discussion came up of a book on tea by Sergey Shevelev, the Moychay owner, Geography of Chinese Tea.  He posted a nice intro of that as a Youtube video recently.  It pretty much matches the review I wrote, talking about what's in it, about Chinese tea types, geography, history, some old stories, tourism sites, processing steps for teas, and so on.  

For covering all that, and for including a lot of photo content, it's a bit general, but that seems fine for what it is supposed to be.  It's not a manual for how to process tea, but it does contain a lot more of the typical processing steps than other books I've read.  It's not a tourism guide, but it could work to cover ideas for what to see related to tea while visiting China.  It's not a comprehensive guide to tea types in China, although it is pretty close to covering all of the main types in limited detail, and many less known versions as well.  Someone just mentioned what they took to be a rare steamed Chinese green tea type in the Gong Fu Cha group, a tea from Hubei, and there was a short section on processing steps in that book on it.

So it was the usual, nice keeping in touch with people and making new contacts, and talking a bit about tea.  It takes the pressure off to do justice to a subject not talking to a tea producer or sub-theme expert, freeing up space for covering tangents.