Chinese tea producers talk about corona virus experience

First posted in TChing.

This title sounds a bit more extensive than the post will be.  I asked a few online friends in China (contacts, if you'd rather) about their experience with this virus issue, and they passed on some thoughts.

it was no time ago we were uncertain of risk but still going out

I'd hoped it would come together better than it did.  It had seemed the human side of the story was getting lost in the first six weeks of reporting on it, and the fear and unusual restrictions within China were special conditions not being considered elsewhere.  As everyone knows the entire country was essentially closed down for a month, then not completely re-opened after.  Then the accounts passed on by contacts in China were mostly just about people missing the normal New Year holiday experience, and being bored in isolation, and concerned.  Economic impact came up; it's hard to imagine how extensive that would be, or how long it would take for full effects to trickle down.  I'll share some input all the same.

as a parent this picture had an impact on me

My good friend Cindy of Wuyi Origin described the general earlier status:

So from 26th [of January] the government took fast action, and did not allowed the  people to gather together, and not go outside. Each village closed the roads in order to protect the village's people.  They did not allow outside people to enter their village. For example Wuyishan has 3 high speed ports (highways?) but the government here closed that.  No one can stop in Wuyishan and enter here from high-speed ports before the 18th  of Feb.


Another contact mentioned how although this sounds extreme he actually approved of it, since that extreme measure was for the benefit of the entire country, and was probably the only way to stop virus transmission effectively.  I'll get back to that other input but wanted to also mention Cindy's take on the impact on the economy.


Several doctors and nurses lost their lives in this incident.  And in China many enterprises face bankruptcy. It is really a big  influence on the economy. In Wuyishan now, 80 percent of the shops are not open [to be clear that was a bit earlier, maybe different now].  All the hotels and  restaurants cannot start the business until the situation is stable.

...One of my cousins invested in a  hotel in Wuyishan.  He invested a lot of his family's savings, and borrowed some from others.  This will cause very poor business for his hotel, like SARS in 2003.  That lasted almost 2 years, then everything went back to normal...


I just saw a FB post warning that business layoffs in the US are likely now from the slow-down of panic, without any remotely similar cause or condition as just occurred in China.  That doesn't make US business problems any less real or valid, just pointing out that a consumer spending slow-down and completely closing down a country for a month are two different kinds of things.

Here's a tea related article on that:  Retail Impact of COVID-19 is Devastating for Tea and Coffee Shops in China and Italy.  This isn't a research post about that topic though; I'll add a bit more first-hand impression.  This more recent input about a return to normal is from Philip of Yiwu Mountain Tea:


I returned to Guangzhou as businesses are officially allowed to open under strict guidelines.  everyone has to wear a face mask.  I was temperature checked 5 times en route.  I have to register electronically and get checked with my WeChat account whenever I arrive at a destination saying where I came from.  At my business I am required to log and temperature check all visitors.

I also hear that there are offshore Chinese going through Thailand as there are no direct flights to Chinese destinations.  Not that I think the risk is very high but then again you never know who is doing what abroad.  The UK has seen a sudden rise in confirmed cases in the last couple of days.


The restrictions could seem like they might not go over well in the US, but we are doing exactly those kinds of things here in Bangkok now, just not consistently, and it's not mandatory (but scaling up).  The security guard at my office checks my temperature sometimes, just not always.  In an earlier discussion comment (from before the re-opening mentioned in that comment) he had mentioned the other issue I'm getting into here, secondary impact, also tied to tea status:


It's been a very quiet month - normally a lot of new year feasting and visiting of distant relatives would be par for the course but this year it's been more sit and chill and try not to think about the worst.  We have elderly with poor health so we have to be extra cautious, especially with hospitals so poorly equipped in this region. 

It's also a case of worries since Spring tea will come soon and visitors may bring in dormant virus late, or nearly as bad,  not come at all and lose income for the year.  That would be a disaster for  cash flow for everyone in the local tea biz. It's also very likely that there will be a shortage of hired labour, and in combination with a very dry year so far,  it's going to another low production year even if people are ready to buy.


I personally am not so worried about paying more for tea, although I am concerned for the health of people everywhere.  Especially in my own family; my wife's mother is in her late 70's, and not in great health, and she matches way too much of the profile of the highest risk cases for this virus.  I'm sure that my wife and kids and I could get it and ride it out but that's not as safe an option for her.  I think my parents could weather it too but hopefully that won't be tested.

Those are just fragments; others said more.  Those comments seemed to capture how this crisis is occurring across more than one dimension, even if they really didn't add much detail to the human cost some have suffered.

People tend to frame this by looking at the number of flu deaths in comparison, which isn't completely unfair (16,000 so far for this flu season).  The mortality rate is the main concern, probably around 2-3% versus .1% for the typical flu (or at close to 4% dividing out confirmed deaths versus confirmed cases, which is surely incomplete per both stats).

a Farmerleaf video on how this will affect tea production, and one on William's quarantine experience

Later update:  a lot has changed in the week since I wrote this initial post draft.  The US is shutting down now, and I've cancelled a family vacation for the end of this month, and a trip back to the US in May for a wedding seems unlikely.  It's too bad; I've not visited my family for a few years.

None of that changes China's experience with the virus from the first two months of this year, but perspective on it seems different, since that's now a shared experience.  This is why I had a problem with the human cost being overlooked there; even beyond the deaths, which are personal tragedies, and related economic impact, it seems wrong to just write off the fear and uncertainty experienced by an entire nation.  I hope this goes better for the entire world than it now seems that it will.

This situation is bad enough but learning more about risks and protection steps helps balance out sensational media reporting.  The Center for Disease Control offers tips for prevention here, and advice on steps to follow if you become sick.  It should help to replace blind fear with taking well-informed steps for protection.

the most recent version, another week later; definitely scary

March 15; numbers went up a lot in a week

the early draft version on this dashboard site from March 7, 2 weeks ago

Shipped tea virus risk; coronavirus status

This issue keeps coming up in online groups lately, if someone can get the corona virus from tea shipped from China.  The short answer:  of course not.  I'll add a longer answer and move on to more relevant concerns. 

As of February 11 this post adds a later study on different forms of coronavirus survival time-frames from the most recent studies on the subject, included at the end.

Here's an example discussion link from International Tea Talk, the group I moderate.  The short version of the best informed feedback is that viruses can only survive on hard surfaces like glass and steel for 24 to 48 hours, and on paper and cloth for 12 or less, and probably can't be transmitted for all of that time, likely losing that potential towards the end of those time-frames.  A package shipped for two or more days poses no risk.  The only exception is in the case of mucus serving as a support medium; if a vendor included a used tissue that might pose more risk.

Don't take my word for it; read this well-referenced Quora answer post by an immunologist, or this summary article.

Status of coronavirus, about opposing interpretations

Isn't it funny how all references online only claim this is probably the worst epidemic to occur since the Spanish flu just over 100 years ago (which killed something like 20-50 million people), or else that there is nothing to worry about.  Which is it?  Why couldn't a more balanced answer be in the middle, pointing towards a range of different outcomes, assessing probabilities?  This discussion comment sums that up (from this related post by a vendor):

In a war on attention, things are either relevant or not relevant, a threat or not a threat. Otherwise, it requires management and status upkeep. A complete difference in how your brain processes it and curates it to your personal social feed. This is the "why" it is communicated that way. But that doesn't get signal-boosted.

So it really has noting to do with the actual risk level, or likely outcome, it's about what people pay attention to.  If that comment is accurate, which seems the case to me.  As to current status, this is the best reference as to where the virus is and current mortality rate:

summary information as of February 4, 2020

How to place that?  The graph of spread of the virus might be more helpful:

That helps a little, but it's still hard to place.  The mortality rate seems to be the issue:  that current 2% mortality rate (426/20574) is much higher than for the typical flu, which is said to run around .1% in online discussions.  It's hard to get a clear reference number confirming that, but this Wikipedia table offers some input on pandemics:

The seasonal flu is already killing 300-650,000 people per year, at that .1% mortality rate (roughly).  The 2009 H1N1 pandemic alone killed 105-395,000 at around a .03% fatality rate (so all that much lower).

So there's the risk:  if the upper-side estimate for H1N1 exposure occurs in this case, 200 million, then 4 million people might be killed.  Of course treatment options would turn up long before the stats reached that level, just as "Tamiflu" came on the scene back in the 2009 case, and even completely ineffective containment efforts would offset some degree of exposure.

It's something to think through, but not necessarily the Biblical plague level concern the one reporting extreme makes it out to be.  If it evolves to spread more effectively and become more deadly that could still change.

Other concerns

This now-dated January 28 CNN article on the corona virus included this photo that changed my perspective on this subject:

Someone might think, that's crazy to wear a bottle and a mask, but look and think again.  Those are people dealing with fear, panic, and real risk.  There are people I care a great deal about living in China right now.  Even without that personal link they're still people, experiencing real health risk.  What if my daughter came to fear a disease that might kill her?

How to even put that in perspective though?  According to this recent CNBC article the flu has killed 10,000 people in the US alone this season, out of 19 million affected.  As that article points out the accuracy of the numbers of infected in China becomes critical; if 100,000 people have had that virus instead of the 20,000 confirmed that actual mortality rate drops by a factor of 5.

Eventually there is no response but to wait and see how this plays out, to make preparations but not overstate concerns.  Thai doctors are experimenting on the few test cases available, testing out drug coctails on them to see what's effective.  Ordinarily that would seem like sloppy methodology, in contrast with more extensive and careful research, but within these circumstances to me it seems commendable.

All that also seems to set aside what the Chinese people are experiencing now, which never has properly been considered in any media article I've yet to see.  The Australian bushfires made for a better story; very graphic, and relatable, happening to a people that seem a lot more familiar to Americans, English-speaking cousins, of a sort.  That 2019-20 bushfire season has killed at least 34 people so far; essentially as many as a bus accident, or four times the impact of Kobe Bryant's helicopter crash, in terms of body count.  Maybe people were instead concerned about the environmental impact, and the nearly countless animals that were killed?  It seems more likely it's just a story that played better; hell-scape images were more relatable than photos of frightened Chinese kids.

Maybe US citizens can better relate to the risk to themselves.  If 2% of the 19 million already affected with the flu had died at that 2% mortality rate that would be 380,000 deaths.  It would be them instead of Chinese people isolated in fear, wondering if the people around them might infect them.


Compassion and empathy really should become a bit more universal.  It's going to be hard to assess what should trigger that, given so many different horrors are causing so much impact day to day.  Here in Thailand we turn a blind eye to our own local traffic mortality statistics, because that's the real risk looming over daily life.  It helps where I live, in Bangkok, that gridlock prevents driving at speeds that would be fatal to a car passenger.  The air we breath also poses long term risk; inputs like that are hard to fully evaluate.

from my office yesterday, when air quality index readings were around 150; unhealthy

perspective is everything; with just a bit of zooming in air haze turns much milkier

This should end on a bright note, shouldn't it, given the dreary and fatalistic tone so far?  The worst case isn't that the world is coming to an end, and actual final impact should be limited, from this cause.

Human nature is the part that most disappoints me, and there are plenty of examples of bright, hopeful, effective souls out there making small changes for the better.  The malaise stemming from apathy and general stupidity often seems a much more significant factor, but the hopeless optimist in me accepts that darkness might only be a sign of impending dawn, or maybe even a positive cause that will bring it about.  Maybe the world might need drawn-out catastrophes like Donald Trump to improve.

We only need to think bigger, look deeper, clear a bit of mental clutter and wrong focus, to make the differences we can make.  And to raise up a next generation of heroes to do better where we failed.

Edit and update:

In discussing this online a contact mentioned another article estimating the maximum life-span for the coronavirus to live on hard surfaces:

Scientists Predict Coronavirus May Live For Up To Nine Days On Surfaces


A new analysis looking at data from different types of coronavirus has shown that many strains can live on surfaces such as glass, plastic or metal, for up to nine days.

The work published yesterday in The Journal of Hospital Infection looked at 22 historical studies on different types of coronavirus, such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronaviruses...

...The review found that on average, coronaviruses can live on surfaces for between four and five days, but some could survive for up to nine days outside of the body at room temperature.

“Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan,” said Kampf.

It is important to note that the review article only took into account data from other types of coronaviruses like SARS and MERS to make their conclusions as no data of this type currently exists on nCoV2019, the strain in the current outbreak... 


That's not as bad as it sounds related to extending that estimated time viruses can survive on limited surfaces for 48 hours, since it still does relate to hard surfaces, on glass or metal, for example.  In the other references cited earlier there was a differentiation between the maximum time a virus might be tested as alive versus the more limited time a virus was likely to be viable enough to be transferred. 

And even if viruses could live on other surface types (eg. on paper), which isn't being claimed, it's unlikely that shipping conditions would provide the optimum low temperature and high humidity environment to enable them to survive longer.  Air freight shipping could involve quite low temperature but would probably also relate to very low humidity levels.

To me this changes nothing related to the prior conclusion here that packaged goods shipped out of China are completely safe.  It is interesting considering additional virus-specific information though.

While I'm at it I'll update virus impact status, as of February 11, from this main source:

It's still not time to panic yet but a week after this initial post it's still too early to predict how this situation will continue to evolve.