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not really on a bus tour |
Not so long ago I ran across an article on Hawaiian tourism that expressed that visitor spending was stagnant, or perhaps even dropping. This repeats a theme that comes up in Thai media regularly over the last 20 years, that they would prefer to attract a better, higher spending class of tourists, at times expressed as a more important goal than attracting more tourists. I'll unpack a bit what I think is going on with both. It's not exactly the same thing, but not different either.
The initial response is pretty obvious: inflation has been rising in both places, quite quickly in the US over the past few years, and faster than previously in Thailand recently, so the same tourists are finding it difficult to match spending habits just a decade ago. That's probably most of it. But we can unpack it a bit more.
Starting with Thailand
The earlier problem there was tourism related to tours, framed as zero-dollar tours by Chinese tour groups, although that's probably only one main form. Articles like this cover the general background, tourism statistics, and the emphasis on attracting higher spending visitors. This reference from 2025 covers the same themes.
This article introduces the topic, and the relation to the Tourism Authority of Thailand:
TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the 2026 direction shifts towards “Value Over Volume”, after weaker foreign demand was hit by factors such as natural disasters, scam-related concerns and the Thai–Cambodian border dispute, which affected travel sentiment and forced a more proactive marketing approach.
Targets: 36.7m foreigners, 205m+ domestic trips
One might wonder how they could adjust who visits; that first article cited mentions one idea:
“We’ve set the outline for TAT to accelerate tourists’ decisions by offering tailor-made tour packages that will match segments with high spending. For instance, the medical tourist segment, who book long-stay accommodation for themselves and their families, should have tour package options to purchase easily while in Thailand,” she said.
That doesn't sound very promising; people can already make arrangements with a foreigner oriented hospital and book a hotel room. It's already easy. The hospitals already offer a lot of different packages, related to bundling sets of services (eg. health checks, or longevity related treatments). I guess marketing could relate to promoting these themes, and raising awareness about the special packages.
I've been on such group / bus tours in Japan and Korea, so the form is familiar to me. You buy a trip as a package, including transportation (air travel), hotel stay, guide service, and even meal costs, which the tour provider arranges in advance using group rates, so that they can still turn a profit. It's an inexpensive way to travel. The trade-off, as a tourist, is all of your freedom. You get on and off a bus and see the places on your itinerary, limited to the time they allot. You eat what they plan for you to eat, and stay where they arrange for you to stay. You need to wake up and sleep at pre-determined times.
The Chinese tour group form isn't really different than what I experienced, in mainly Thai groups (my wife had set that up, based out of Bangkok). The food was often better than you might expect for such a format, since they arranged decent versions of local foods. It's a mindless way to travel, getting on and off a bus, spending an hour here and there. At least a guide drones on with a canned background speech. I suppose I was listening to that in Thai fairly often, but that part wasn't so memorable that it sticks out.
Of course what Thailand wants instead are 5 star guests, staying in $200 or higher per night resorts (which would be $500 in Hawaii instead), spending money in higher end restaurants, and buying local goods as souvenirs, or just as normal expense on clothing and such. We never travel like that, as a family. We stay in moderately priced hotels, and eat in lower cost local restaurants, in Thailand and elsewhere. And we've travelled a lot. We've been to where we did those tours on our own as well, in Japan and Korea, and also visited China, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Singapore, and Malaysia, multiple times each. We've only been to Australia and Russia once, and make it back to the US from time to time.
One problem is that they probably can't really dictate who visits through marketing. It would be nice if that was possible. Then you could show those 5 star resorts and better restaurants in ads, and people on that page would stream into your country. Or eco-tourism / home stays might thrive. There's actually some chance of that, since it's a completely different theme, not just a different spending level, which is what they're trying to adjust. Unsuccessfully; the tourism authority in Thailand has been discussing this for well over a decade, and the local consensus take is that they're not making any difference.
Tourism does thrive in Thailand. Visitor numbers go up and down, for reasons they can't control, but it all works out.
Legalized weed (marijuana) has been an interesting running theme, for a few years, which of course "they" (the Thai government) would see as a negative input, related to visitor type selection. They don't want more hostel based backpackers. Of course nothing is ever that simple, since different types of people might smoke weed, and more tourism is better, while less is worse.
It's not as if it seems that 4 and 5 star resorts are going out of business, while hostel businesses are on the rise. It's instead that tracking estimates of visitor spending, however accurate those may be, identify trends that are seen as unfavorable. This is the same theme that's happening in Hawaii, so let's consider that part.
Related to Hawaii
Here's an example of the kind of article reference I had mentioned, which mixes in a lot of anecdotal accounts along with limited stats. They can track average room rates, but visitor spending isn't something that would be well documented. Maybe surveys help with that?
I really don't follow any related stats, so I've only seen different articles making the same kind of claims, based on similar spending estimates. It's hard to imagine total visitor spending going down, given that room rates only go up. The average cited is something like $400 per night (or a bit over that, which sounds kind of high, but who knows). Resort fees, parking, and taxes keep going up, so the costs would rise, even beyond the room rate inputs increasing.
For what it's worth this is Google's AI take:
Hawaii tourism is experiencing a notable downturn, with visitor arrivals and spending dropping in early 2026. March 2026 saw a 1.7% decrease in visitors compared to 2025, influenced by severe weather, while 2025 saw sustained declines from 2024 levels. Key causes include high travel costs, a slowing U.S. market, lingering effects from the 2023 Maui wildfires, and reduced international travel.
From what I recall, beyond that article as a reference, tourist spending is either flat or else in decline. It would make more sense to me if that was trying to capture spending beyond room costs, and maybe that is it. From there I can only describe what I see "on the ground," since we actually live at the one edge of Waikiki.
The streets never seem empty. You can't judge occupancy percentages that way though; if 10 to 20% less people visited we might not notice that in sidewalk traffic or beach space use.
What about visitor norms, guessing about spending levels? The hearsay I would pass on might be of limited value, but I can still attempt that. There are higher and lower spending level tourists, for sure, beyond almost everyone facing high room rates. We live beside the local equivalent of a hostel, which is always full (seemingly); I guess that would be one way to drop costs. Then again whenever we visit the Hilton Hawaiian Village, a sprawling, multi-building complex at the relative opposite extreme, it always seems to be quite full as well. Their restaurants seem to be at capacity, and that closest beach space is packed.
One might imagine that they can see shifts in visitor origins or types (back to the problematic economic class distinctions), but it probably doesn't work out that way. Or extrapolate from online discussion points, but again that's a mixed sample, and probably a poor reference.
I see discussions about Hawaii and Waikiki tourism in Facebook and Reddit, and per the usual divide that breaks into two groups. One segment isn't concerned about daily spending, which is going to be quite high, on guided tours, and going to typical Waikiki restaurants, or luaus. The other perspective relates to complaints over a local burger costing at least $20 (which is does). More like $30, with any drink, tax, and tip, and in a beachfront hotel restaurant that might be $60, or more, with alcoholic drinks. It would seem strange spending $100 on a burger and a couple of drinks. If spending a couple of extra thousand dollars on food is an issue then Hawaii isn't the place to go.
I've not seen mention of Hawaii using marketing changes to address this. It probably wouldn't work if they tried, and it would awkward to market that higher end experiences are available, if your spending is unlimited.
We can see some broad changes in visitor origins, even guessed at from who is on the sidewalks. Japanese tourists declined over the past 20 years, along with the decline in their economy (or even over the last 4 years). This is where I'd add who seems to have replaced them, which groups, but I don't think that anyone's personal observations would be well-grounded or authoritative. Even what I've just said might be questionable; maybe there are as many Japanese guests as ever. I'm judging from people "looking Japanese."
We sometimes take a free local shuttle, free if you have a JCB credit card, and of course almost everyone else on those are Japanese (JCB is the Japanese credit card version). That kind of filtering makes the "general look" test unreliable, that where you happen to go changes everything.
My own take
I don't think any tourist destinations can adjust who will visit. Malaysia seemed to expand their tourism sector through extensive advertising, so I guess that could work (🎵 Malaysia, truly Asia🎵).
Beyond advertising there may be limited ways that these destinations could self-promote. One example here in Waikiki has been a series of outdoor movies, shown on a main beach, for free (Sunset at the Beach). This has been sponsored by Southwest Airlines, and I think not by local tourism agencies or government, but it's an example of something low-cost that could add appeal, especially with commercial partnership involved.
Of course there is already plenty to do in Hawaii, lots of existing draw, but adding to that couldn't hurt. Beyond there being more reason to visit it would seem more like visitors are appreciated, which is nice, and it can put a positive spin on local tourism support. A collaborative arrangement for a fireworks display in Waikiki on Fridays is another example (that they're already doing); it just adds that little extra touch, to help make the thousands that tourists spent seem like a better value.
In Thailand all they would really need to do it promote local festivals that are already going on. Those are typically framed as something locals mostly participate in, but foreigners are welcome at them, and there's nothing stopping them from framing them as a tourism draw.
To me those are an exceptional and unique experience, and you can barely find out they're going on, on any sites or event calendars, so you really need to run across them by chance. I suppose it's a concern that there is essentially no cost to attend those; people tend to buy food, but even those options are inexpensive, so it runs against the theme they are trying to promote, higher spending.
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not exactly what I meant, but this light and sound show in Si Thep (historical area) was nice |
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still not what I meant, but the Bangkok Chinatown goes all-out for different themed festivals |
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I'd meant like a huge Red Cross event, but this small Squid Game themed festival works |
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this street art festival was nice, in an old part of Bangkok |
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that Red Cross event, which is massive, but that doesn't come across in this photo |
Or I guess both places could promote marijuana tourism, since it's already happening, without them being involved? I get it why both wouldn't want that to expand as a main part of the local image. But they wouldn't have to spend a lot on ads referencing people getting high. Holding a couple of related themed, medium scale events a year could explode awareness. Local authorities wouldn't even need to hold those, they could just allow them, and businesses that are already related would take it from there.
But then both places need to sort out where it is that people are supposed to be getting high. It's everywhere, in Honolulu, just walking down the street, but if people really are allowed to smoke on the beach or in parks they could mention that (or if they're not instead). Or keeping it all in the grey area may make the most sense, what they already do.
In Thailand I think they have it narrowed down to people being allowed to smoke marijuana almost nowhere, only in shops that allow on-site consumption, which isn't how that usually goes (per online discussion; I've never been in such places there). You can't smoke on the street, or generally even on an open hotel balcony. Only partly a joke, old themes about illegal smoking are sometimes referenced online, about smoking and blowing it into a paper towel tube filled with fabric softener sheets. Why make it both legal and also illegal?
In Hawaii the main problem seems to be out of control inflation, and I don't think that's under anyone's control. They could address spiraling hotel costs by allowing Air BNB rentals (now disallowed in some zones), but with residential housing costs also spiraling that's very problematic. Residential and retail rents seem to drive a lot of this cost increase, and there's no way to reverse that, or offset further increase. Value will continue to be an issue, and hotels will need to trade off discounting to support high residency levels, as demand fluctuates.












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